Yet another eclectic, well researched and thought provoking post. Nicholas’ arguments open for challenging group think in the RBA (and more generally) approach to forecasting/analysis are compelling. To move the ball forward, how about an open letter to Michelle Bullock inviting her to sponsor a competition, with the RBA forecasting methodology as datum? (This might also elicit a clear statement of the rationale for the fixed 2-3% inflation target.)
Very happy to play along if you want to draft something (and perhaps get some more worthies to join in). I long ago ceased to try to persuade these organisations of anything if they weren't asking me to do so — on the grounds that life is short. It's not that I mind donating my time to promote the common good, but kidding myself that these people care leaves me feeling like a self-indulgent, self-flattering fool. But there's safety in numbers :)
I wrote about it: I find it specially useful for High court and other expert panel nominations:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PyqPr4z76Z8xGZL22/sortition
Yet another eclectic, well researched and thought provoking post. Nicholas’ arguments open for challenging group think in the RBA (and more generally) approach to forecasting/analysis are compelling. To move the ball forward, how about an open letter to Michelle Bullock inviting her to sponsor a competition, with the RBA forecasting methodology as datum? (This might also elicit a clear statement of the rationale for the fixed 2-3% inflation target.)
Thanks Mike.
Very happy to play along if you want to draft something (and perhaps get some more worthies to join in). I long ago ceased to try to persuade these organisations of anything if they weren't asking me to do so — on the grounds that life is short. It's not that I mind donating my time to promote the common good, but kidding myself that these people care leaves me feeling like a self-indulgent, self-flattering fool. But there's safety in numbers :)